A new poll, conducted by Hunter College, finds Hillary Clinton is the strong favorite among LGB voters. The poll, a first of it's kind "ever conducted by a university-based team of scholars with a nationally representative sample of lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGBs) Americans", shows Clinton with 63% of the vote, a full 41 points ahead of her closest rival. The poll was conducted with 768 respondents by from November 15th through November 26th, 2007.
Here is some of the sample's demographic information:
SEXUAL ORIENTATION: GENDER:
Female Gay, lesbian, homosexual
51.2 51.1
Male Bisexual
48.8 48.9AGE
18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
30.2 32.2 28.6 8.9
The study found LGB voters were engaged in the political process. About a third of respondents said they were "very interested" in politics, while just over a fifth of the studies general population characterized themselves in kind. Over a third said they became more interested in politics during their "coming out" period.
LGBs were more likely than the general population to have contacted a government official in the past 12 months (23 percent to 16 percent). "These levels of civic engagement indicate that gay people can have a bigger influence on public policy than suggested by their relatively small share of the population," said Patrick J. Egan, an assistant professor at New York University and another of the study's investigators.
Nine in 10 LGB likely voters will vote in the Democratic primaries and 21 percent say that lesbian and gay rights will be the most important issue influencing their vote in 2008.
72 percent of LGB likely voters consider Senator Clinton a supporter of gay rights, with Senator Obama at 52 percent and former Senator Edwards at 41 percent. On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was at 37 percent, followed by Senator John McCain at 13 percent.Indeed, in a potential match up between Hillary and so-called socially liberal Giuliani, Hillary wins in a landslide, though he does slightly better than a generic Republican vs. a generic Democrat."These findings suggest opportunities. Clinton benefits from a high turnout in this very Democratic bloc; her opponents would benefit from making their stated support for gay rights more visible to LGB voters," said Murray Edelman, a distinguished scholar at Rutgers University's Eagleton Institute and one of the study's investigators.
If the 2008 election for president were being held today, would you probably vote for the ROTATE: Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?
% of likely LGB voters % of likely LGB voters
Hillary Clinton The Democratic candidate
88.4 90.8
Rudy Giuliani The Republican candidate
11.0 7.9
Hillary Clinton 62.8
Barack Obama 22.3
John Edwards 6.5
Dennis Kucinich 4.5
Bill Richardson 1.2
Chris Dodd 1.1
Joe Biden 1.0
Refused 0.6
The study had a number of interesting statistics. For example, respondents by a large margin (by a margin of 60 to 37 percent) said it was wrong to remove transgendered americans from discrimination legislation to get it through Congress. While enacting employment non-discrimination laws was one of the two most important policies for these LGB voters (59% ranked it as an extremely important goal, along with securing spousal benefits), surprisingly 40% of respondents believed there is a national law making it illegal to fire someone for being gay, lesbian or bisexual.
The study finds these voters are one of the most engaged social groups in american politics. Clinton's support from these active voters could help her immensely in the nominating process and beyond.
*This study was made possible by a grant from the Human Rights Campaign.
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